October 20, 2022

Midterms all over the map

Over at FiveThirtyEight, they are predicting a 75% chance of a Republican victory in Congress but only a 39% chance of Republicans taking the Senate. Meanwhile Larry Sabato's sight is putting 214 as at least leaning seats for the Republicans and only 195 for the Democrats and for the senate 49 seats each with two still as toss ups. Yet a lot of others like Red Eagle Politics, based on the RealClearPolitics generic ballot are predicting a Republican blowout.

Why the difference? It probably comes down to confirmation bias on both sides (Democrats and elites vs. Republicans and average Americans).  A fantastic example of that is this clip of Nancy Pelosi:

I get wanting to project confidence, but dismissing outright polling that flies on the face of your narrative smacks of outright denial of reality.  I don't want to be delusional like Nancy Pelosi. So I'm not saying it will be a Republican red wave, but there does seem to be a tailwind in play.

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