July 8, 2021

Taiwan taken by China? Why Dinesh D'Souza is wrong.

Taiwan are the good guys, but not if China can help it.  Dinesh D'Souza thinks an invasion is imminent. I respect him, although I disagree in this case. While I hope he's wrong, there's a good chance he's right.  Here's his case:

Here's why this analysis could be wrong.  While they are clearly able to do so at this point, and the current American administration, whom I still refuse to call by name, is weak.  They are in many ways beholden to China.  BUT even though there is no Pacific version of NATO, South Korea, Japan, Australia and a number of other regional nations would not be happy and call upon the United States to engage militarily. 

Geopolitically it may be unavoidable to engage militarily.  China is not blind to this possibility. I'm sure they've wargamed it all out. China's philosophy is to play the long game.  Their most recent foray into domination of Hong Kong is a win for them.  They will likely be willing to consolidate that win and play the long game against America.  It's in their best interest to avoid a war since they are winning without actually fighting one.

It makes sense for them to keep a feckless oaf as their adversary rather than to risk alienating even more voter from him and potentially facing another Trumpian president after 2024 who is willing to stand up to China and embolden allies to do so as well.  Would they rather face that or have an extra four years of a know-nothing, do-nothing administration?  Especially when all of the levers in America are pulled in the support-the-feckless position (big tech, the mainstream media primary among them). 

No, I don't see a war.  I see China using the threat of a war where it might suit them politically, but that's all.  If there is going to be a war, the earliest opportunity would be 2025. 

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