May 11, 2021

The new demographics

Bill Whittle and company discuss the demographic shifts that were expected and how reality has differed from what was anticipated.  What I have been predicting (and I posted on this somewhere a few years ago) was an offshoot of what they are discussing here. Which I will re-emphasize below the video.

I predicted years a go a shift towards a work from home economy.  COVID-19 has obviously accelerated that paradigm shift, but it was inevitable regardless.  Businesses can save real estate or costs (either through purchase or rental) by having fewer workers in a centralized office.  The savings are dramatic.  I worked for a company back in 2014 that had combined three office buildings into one by requiring office workers to work from home 40% of the time.  It resulted in the company saving millions per year in office space rental, electricity, and myriad other cost associated with having an office facility.  That makes a huge difference in the bottom line profits.  While not every job can be taken home (factory jobs for example), this will result in a very significant portion of the population as remote workers.

There's implications with that, including some important ones.  For example, if 50% of workers can work from home, they don't need to commute.  The need for roads and road development is decreased.  People don't need to live in congested cities to work, they can move just about anywhere and telecommute (for lack of a better word).  That means property values in cities decrease and in rural areas with more space and less smog, they will increase.  That will result in a population shift to small towns and rural areas.   Rural and smaller town areas tend to be, and vote, more conservative.

That's just the tip of the iceberg.  There are so many impacts and factors that will influence the shifts (for example, the proximity to hospitals still matters, but so does where future hospitals get built).

This merits a longer discussion, which I am sure will happen soon.

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