October 14, 2020

Latest election round-up

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There have been a few new polls since my last update. Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 250 electoral college votes while  Joe Biden currently has 237 electoral college votes and there are still 51 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*  

In the swing states the following results are observed:

-- Texas has a total of only 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up as a result. But Trump has 54.5% and Biden has 45.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.1%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to the included polls.  But I'm assuming a Trump win.  The projected vote differential would be 579,250 in a regular turnout or 605,580 in a high turnout election.  

-- Florida has a total of 6 valid polls. Trump has 51.5% and Biden has 48.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.9%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 150,825 in a regular turnout or 157,681 in a high turnout election. 

-- Pennsylvania has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 50% and Biden has 50% of the weighted valid vote total. But Joe Biden leads by 0.1%.   Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be a miniscule 2,748 in a regular turnout or 2,873 in a high turnout election. This state could be the difference in the election. 

-- Ohio has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 54.8% and Biden has 45.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 9.5%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 316,739 in a regular turnout or 331,136 in a high turnout election. 

-- Georgia has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 51.3% and Biden has 48.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 2.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 71,859 in a regular turnout or 75,125 in a high turnout election. 

-- Michigan has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.7% and Biden has 49.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.4%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 41,919 in a regular turnout or 43,824 in a high turnout election. 

-- North Carolina has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 49.3% and Biden has 50.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,295 in a regular turnout or 44,217 in a high turnout election. 

-- Virginia has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I'm assuming a Biden win in the state. 

-- Arizona has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.2% and Biden has 47.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.4%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 78,940 in a regular turnout or 82,528 in a high turnout election. 

-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 47.7% and Biden has 52.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 4.7%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 80,595 in a regular turnout or 84,258 in a high turnout election. 

-- Minnesota has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Nevada has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

-- Iowa has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 52.3% and Biden has 47.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 4.7%.    Trump would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 42,558 in a regular turnout or 44,492 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Mexico has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 42.6% and Biden has 57.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 14.8%.    No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  The projected vote differential would be 74,797 in a regular turnout or 78,197 in a high turnout election. 

-- New Hampshire has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 48.3% and Biden has 51.7% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.5%.    Biden would get the electoral college votes.  The projected vote differential would be 13,821 in a regular turnout or 14,450 in a high turnout election. 

-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  Assuming a Trump win.  

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 17 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias as well as my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

I believe that president Trump will win Arizona bring his electoral college total to 261. He could also win North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota and possibly Pennsylvania and Nevada. That gives him a lot of paths to victory. But in any of those states as well as Michigan I expect Democrats to mount legal proceedings to try to discount any of the president's victories.

That means this comes down to a legal battle, and the president will have to win more than 270-something or else it could be stolen.  But it's still possible that he gets as high as 326 electoral college votes if the election were held today.

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