October 4, 2016

State of the race - October 4th

After seeing Trump peak at 270 about a week back (and not posting on it), I've got a different picture today, that doesn't completely align with all of the latest polling but does reflect a tight race.  As of today, I have Hillary winning a squeaker.

The darker the color red, the safer for Trump, the darker the blue the safer for Clinton.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Current polls have Hillary ahead in Florida and North Carolina, the latter by tenths of a percent. I think Trump will carry both of those states.  Nevada has Hillary back in front but it's too early to shift that back to her column yet.  

Also of note, Gary Johnson the Libertarian is pulling over 20% of the vote in Nevada and realistically has moved that state to less safely Hillary's, but I'm keeping it as is for now.

The VP debate is tonight.  Watch it and you'll see some definite contrast between the two men.

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