August 31, 2016

Canada's GDP under ultra-left Liberals nosedives

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office in November 2015, promising to unbalance the books and run a massive deficit for several years, legalize marijuana and effectively remove Canada from the war on terror.  He also prattled on about fairer tax for the middle class .  Being a member of the middle class, the changes that have taken place have not helped me (not that I expected them to do so - his definition of the middle class effectively splits it in two and apparently I fall on the wrong side of the line for any benefit.  More on that in the future perhaps).  In any case, those of us attuned to economic policy were alarmed at his plans for which the math simply didn't work. Shouting it did not help.  After a decade of Conservative leadership, and in an election where the Conservative Prime Minister seemed bored and listless, Canadians seemed ready for change.

So we got a drama teacher (seriously) for a Prime Minister because he had name recognition.  His father Pierre Elliot Trudeau probably did more damage to Canada than any other Prime Minister in history but he was charismatic and won election after election.  Which brings us to Round 2.

After an anemic first quarter GDP growth of 0.6% in Trudeau's first quarter as PM, the second quarter swung wildly into negative GDP territory;
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's economy shrank in the second quarter in its worst showing in seven years, hurt by a drop in exports and a disruption to oil production caused by wildfires in Alberta, but growth was still seen as likely to rebound later this year.

Although the second-quarter contraction was somewhat larger than the Bank of Canada had anticipated, the figures released on Wednesday were not expected to move the central bank off the sidelines at its meeting next week. Markets see a 92 percent probability that the bank will hold rates at 0.50 percent. [CA/POLL]
While the article goes on to take an upbeat view that the economy will rebound and that it was merely a series of unfortunate events that caused the downturn. No. Oil prices are not going to recover any time soon. That's a critical factor. Employment is still weak. Fiscal policy akin to the big Obama stimulus will do nothing to mitigate the downturn which tax policies are sure to exacerbate.

This is a sign for American voters to keep in mind as they head to the polls in November. Electing Liberals in perilous times increases the risk of greater peril.
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