May 3, 2016

Looking past Indiana

Trump is poised to win Indiana, and Hillary Clinton likewise.  The Republican nomination is looking less and less like it will be a contested one, and Bernie Sanders is not going to upset the Hillary Clinton rotten apple cart.

It's going to be Trump versus Clinton.  #NeverTrumpers are going to stamp their feet, hell they might stay home come November, but they are not going to change the primary at all. Trump will get 1237 delegates prior to the convention.  Ted Cruz is becoming, not unhinged, but seemingly desperate to shake up the situation and is looking more desperate and less presidential in doing so.  Kasich will continue his delusional ways and strip off some delegates.  Just not enough.

On the Democrat side, it's not a question of if but rather when Hillary passes the threshold to secure the nomination.  Sanders will in fact speak emphatically on her behalf at the Democratic convention, trying to rouse his supporters on her moribund behalf.  Simultaneously he'll be angling for a key position on team Hillary - perhaps even a VP nod.

Hillary is facing eroding favorables, thanks to Sanders.
The nosedive Mrs. Clinton’s rating has taken among independents suggests she has a lot of work to do to win those voters over in a general election. Her campaign has already begun fretting about the lasting damage Mr. Sanders’s criticism of her could have in the general election, and has publicly encouraged the senator to rally his supporters behind her for the sake of the Democratic Party.

Already, Republican front-runner Donald Trump has begun crediting some of his attacks on Mrs. Clinton to her rival. At a rally in Indiana on Monday, the real-estate developer criticized Mrs. Clinton’s “bad judgment” and thanked Mr. Sanders for similarly targeting her.
Trump of course has his own troubles in a general election. Predominant among them are the self-inflicted-wound #NeverTrumpers whose opposition to the Donald seems so strong, they'd rather see 8 years of Hillary Clinton at the helm than bring themselves to consider voting for him. Independents are not happy with him in probably less numbers than with Hillary, and Democrat voters are as opposed to him as Republicans are to Hillary Clinton. That's probably a wash. A strong GOP turnout would possibly be enough to push Trump over the top. So far it looks like that's not going to happen. You think the primaries are ugly?The general election is going to be a brawl and there are going to be more than just two sides.

UPDATE:  It looks like Bernie might upset Hillary Clinton in Indiana.  That's what happens when you start looking too far ahead- you make mistakes in the present.  My mistake. It's ironic given the post I have scheduled for tomorrow (which I still stand behind, 100%).  That said, regardless of an upset in Indiana, Bernie is only delaying the inevitable.  Clinton will still win.  But he will manage to stay in the race and do more damage to Hillary Clinton and that's a good thing.  Unless he actually wins.  The potential for America to go full-on socialist is a nightmare beyond belief.
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