March 16, 2016

Quick prognostication self-review

Since I bothered to make some predictions for last night, it's only fair I critique my skill.

Ohio - I predicted Clinton (narrowly) and John Kasich. While I thought Sanders would run closer to Clinton but he did outperform the polling.  So I'm giving myself 2 for 2 on Ohio.

Florida - I expected both Clinton and Trump would win handily and they did.  2 for 2 again.

North Carolina - I expected Clinton and Trump and again went 2 for 2.  Why? The polling was just to slanted to think anything otherwise.

So for the easy ones I went 6 for 6.  Now we reach the part where I start to fall apart.

Illinois - I predicted Bernie momentum would carry him in Illinois.  Wrong.He made it close and got 67 delegates to Clinton's 88. Hillary won by a roughly 1.5% margin. I was close, but wrong. I also predicted Ted ruz would pick up the state.  He broke 30% support but Trump hit 38%.  Wrong again.  I can take comfort in the directional notion that there was a bit of a Cruz surge, but I'm 0 for 2 on Illinois.

Missouri - I picked Sanders and Cruz.  Both lost to Clinton and Trump respectively by 0.2% in right races.  I think I deserve 1 out of 2 because both were super tight and recounts are possible.  But I'll take the zero again.

So I went 6 for 10.  Not terrible. 

I also expected 420 delegates for Clinton and a ceiling of 200 for Trump. Clinton has 442 on the night according to Politico. Trump garnered 204.  I think I'm 2/2 on that.  I also predicted 66 for Kasich (correctly) from Ohio but he also picked up 5 in Missouri. I picked a ceiling of 150 for Cruz (optimistically for sure). Cruz got 41. Ouch.  I'll give myself 1/2 on Cruz and Kasich.

Overall 9/14 or 64%.  Not bad - I'll take it.

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