November 3, 2011

Palin: Still Not Running

Allahpundit at Hot Air has a piece today about the faint hope speculation that Palin might still be reconsidering a run for President.  The logic behind the late bid is that it is possible, not plausible.  Read the piece here for the details on why there is a glimmer of hope for Palinistas.

But the reality of the situation suggests otherwise.  It's too late.  The game plan Allahpundit maps out in fun, is just that - in fun.  There's no way to make that scenario work.  It's too late for Palin to run in 2012.*

If she wishes to remain relevant, she's going to have to run for office somewhere as a step on the road to political recovery.  She stretched out her indecision too long to come back with a 'no'.  If she wants to contend in 2016 or 2020, some Senate, Congressional or more gubernatorial resume building is required.  It serves three purposes.  

Firstly, it adds to her resume, which many regard as too thin.  While it's not as thin as Barack Obama's was, no one needs another rookie president.  Fair or not, Palin needs at least four years of profile political experience.  That means not in Alaska, either in Washington in Congress or the Senate or as a governor in another state.  Executive experience is preferable.  Another option might be as Energy Secretary, although that could be limiting unless wildly successful.  Following Steven Chu bodes well for a superior performance - there'd be no Solyndras under Palin.  However the bureaucratic nature of a federal department 

Secondly it serves to give her time to rehabilitate her image.  While Democrats loath her and will continue to do so, she needs to win over Independents and Republicans who have accidentally swallowed the MSM Kool Aid and believe she's an airhead. The damage repair to her perceived persona could take years.  The time would serve her well in that capacity.  

Thirdly, somewhat related to the second point,  it provides her some more political seasoning and helps with damage control for her jilted followers.  She has to prove she wants to be in the fight.  After leaving Alaska prematurely, and not running in 2012, the image may be forming that she doesn't want to run for anything anymore.  If she doesn't, that's fine, but if she ever does, she's got to get back on that political horse now or she will be seen as not at all interested.  Waiting two years to start her comeback will make it far more difficult to achieve.

She may not be running now, but she could conceivably start her comeback now.  Ronald Reagan didn't win in 1976 and it only made him stronger.  The potential for Palin is still there for the future, if she starts doing the legwork now.

*there is always the convention option.  But I don't see that as a likely scenario either.

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