February 15, 2010

Evan Bayh Shocker

I'm working on a post today about the November 2010 mid-term elections and what the biggest influencers on the outcome will be, Without giving to much of the article away, one of the biggest factors was momentum - momentum to date and momentum between now and November. It's no big surprise that one of the future factors in momentum is the possible further retirements of Democrats.

So what happens today? One of the Democrats I was thinking might be a little more vulnerable than it would first seem, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, announces he won't seek re-election.

The New York Times reports;
Senator Evan Bayh, the Indiana Democrat, has decided not to run for a third term this year.

Mr. Bayh will announce the news at a press conference at 2 p.m., an aide confirmed on Monday. The decision was closely held by Mr. Bayh, a party official in Indiana said, and came as a surprise to Democrats in his state who had already started working on his campaign.

Mr. Bayh made his decision even after entreaties by President Obama and White House aides, including the chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, who urged him to run.

This is a fairly unexpected turn of events. While I thought he might be vulnerable, it's easily argued that his seat is quite defendable too. What this does for momentum in 2010, is too early to tell, but for Democrats it's likely not good.

In some districts, for example Chris Dodd's or Harry Reid's a retirement could actually help Democrats - that's not liekly the case in Bayh's case. Rassmessen had Bayh up by 3 points over Hostettler and down only 3 against Pence.

It's not clear what Democrats had as a plan B for Indiana. Clearly Pence though, wanted no more part of plan A.

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