November 11, 2009

Polling Data Tipping Point

Polling data out today from Gallup shows a couple of interesting things.  As noted by Ed Morrissey at Hot Air, Gallup now has the GOP at +6 over Democrats on a generic Congressional ballot (48% to 44%).  That's an improvement of 10 points from just last July when Democrats were up 50% to 44%.  In the same Gallup report, among independents, the GOP has pulled ahead by a staggering 22 points.

This all among registered voters.  My belief is that registered voters lag behind likely voters as an indicator because a smaller percentage of them are likely to vote, and therefore overall, they are less engaged than the 'purer' sample of likely voters.  My theory is that this is the reason Gallup lags Rasmussen when it comes to trends on Obama and Democrats.  Either that or else they exhibit the same sort of bias as say Newsweek.

Turning to Rasmussen, the data, which showed generic Congressional Republican leads as far back as late June and has already seen it peak at 7 points in late August, currently also shows a 6 point lead for the GOP, and a 23 point lead among independents.  That's what looks a little bit like a preponderence of evidence (more polls will undoubtedly be in line with these nuumbers in the near future).

With respect to President Obama, Rasmussen has these today;

Have we reached another political tipping point? While it's too early to tell, it starting to seem like these numbers genuinely may not be recoverable for Democrats in 2010.  The President has time on his personal numbers but he seems 'disinclined to acquiesce' to changes to his agenda, which likely means the same eventual outcome for him.  However, the President may not care.  If he's not invested in saving jobs, fighting national debt or resolving something on Afghanistan, given the visibility and urgency of those issues, then maybe he is a single issue guy.

Time will tell.

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