September 22, 2009

Rasmussen's latest Presidential tracking poll

As of the latest Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (2 minutes ago as of the start of the writing of this post), the President's job approval ratings bump from his speech to a joint session of Congress appears dead. 

The approval index, which had closed the gap to -3 (3% more strangly disapproved than strongly approved) has widened back to -8.  Rasmussen has indicated that it seems to serve as a leading indicator of overall approval.  While it's more likely intended to measure depth of support or opposition, it does seem to trend ahead of the overall job approval.  Looking at his graphing of the Index, it appears that since late July the President's numbers have levelled out at roughly 30% strong approval, and 40% strong disapproval.  I intend to test that theory with another theoretical tool very soon.

Turning to his overall job approval, it's again, down from the speech 2 weeks ago when it had climbed back above 50%.  Guess what it's back below - with 49% approval and 50% disapproval.  I'd like to look at these numbers again in the near future to see if the trend has stalled.  The trend looks less stalled than the Job Approval Index, and it's a different measure - but if the Index is the leading indicator then in the near future we might see a leveling out of those Approval numbers as well. 

While that may be disappointing news for conservatives, there is a silver lining.   Two silver linings in fact.  Firstly, the speechifying by the President seems to have lost it's momentum-changing or momentum-building effects it had in 2008.  Every speech provides a bump, and the seemingly temporary effect it now has means it cannot be a game changer in 2010.  The second silver lining is less tangible.  Just because the President's rating slide MIGHT stop or slow, that supposes that there are no new game changing events coming into play.  This is the real world though and it's been duly noted that Team Obama is full of not ready for prime time players.  There will be gaffes.  There will be bad decisions.  There will be unexpected crisis.  And there will be further deterioration of some of the economic indicators like the unemployment rate.

Indeed the current delay in the slide may end up being a high point of the President's job approval rating over his term.

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