September 3, 2009

News Flash: The GOP doesn't suck

The GOP, as I mentioned the other day, have been doing some things right lately. Chief among them so far is simply not sucking. Hardly a ringing endorsement, but given the state of the union a few short months ago, it's been enough. They appear to be benefiting from it, as witnessed by the Rasmussen data trended below.

While the GOP has pulled ahead consistently since late June, there's no time to celebrate.

They still are benefiting mostly from disaffection with the Democrats, not from a renewed faith among the American populace (certainly among some quarters, but not as a general rule). Secondly the gap is only +7%. That can evaporate in a month if things go wrong. Thirdly and most importantly, their popularity surge does not translate directly to a victory in health care or cap and trade legislation. Democrats still have the numbers to push those through if they want.

The good news is that the Democrats are scared. Listen - you can hear it. The public option was pulled from the table (for the time being). Blue Dogs are reticent to get on board with the Pelosi-Obama-Frank-Reid-Sebelius-Kennedy single payer public option express. Cap and trade barely passed Congress. These items can be derailed because they are bad for America.

The GOP HAS TO step up if they want to take this to the next level. They can gain another 5 points if they prove their sincerity and (1) do not cave like Olympia Snowe and get on board with the grassroots 'mob' in opposing these government takeovers with sincerity and hard work.

If they prove they are more than just 'not the Democrats' they can gain some more ground on the Democrats. If they propose their own reforms, particularly with respect to cost, there's even more ground to be gained. People have been talking about a 20 seat gain, to a 100 seat gain in Congress for the GOP in 2010. If a 7% cushion represents 30 seats (and there's no guarantee), a 100 seat gain means they need (if the relationship were linear) a 23% lead come 2010.

That's a stretch. No, that's wishful thinking. But at 14% they could be talking about a 60 seat gain. Republicans - the seats are out there for the taking, are you listening?


  1. Simply not sucking... at least it's a place to start.

  2. Not sucking is better than sucking. Next step - shining.


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