3 reasons the Obama victory predictor could be wrong

There’s a pretty reliable prediction out that President Obama will win re-election in 2012. As reported by Allahpundit over at Hot Air, the Keys System sees Obama. Predictive modelling, while not my forte, is something right up my alley. I’m quite familiar with the design and upkeep of models in my day job - I work with them regularly and have even built one or two.  Without a great deal of insight into the specifics of the model, I can see few potential problems with the predicted outcome.

Daryl Hannah arrested.

Trying to make a splash she can no longer make with her career, Daryl Hannah got arrested for protesting against common sense.

Daryl Hannah was arrested by U.S. Park Police Tuesday at a protest in front of the White House, a police spokesman told TheWrap.

Hannah was participating in a sit-in against the construction of a pipeline that would stretch from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.

Why do I claim it's common sense that she seems to be against? It's explained here. And here.

Flashback: Thatcher's brilliance in 2 minutes

Admonishing government largess for what it is, Margaret Thatcher showing people what common sense looks like and why government should really consider applying some to itself.

Dictator Watch - Aug 30, 2011

It's been a while since I've focused on foreign dictators in a Dictator Watch post.  Perhaps none have been so light-hearted as this one.  But that's just a result of the subject matter.  Hugo Chavez looks like John Candy.Vlad Putin looks like a latter day Nero, Assad looks lonely, and Qaddafi looks like...well Qaddafi, but on the run.

Gunwalker scandal leads to ATF shakeup

In light of the Gunwalker scandal (aka Fast and Furious), it looks like some heads will roll. 

Via Fox:

The acting director of the Justice Department division caught up in a firearms trafficking scandal is being removed from his post, sources told Fox News on Tuesday. 

Kenneth Melson, who heads the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, will be reassigned elsewhere in the Justice Department. An announcement is expected late Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, the wrong head was on the chopping block - is Attorney General Holder going to skate on this? Accountability only goes as high as it needs to in order to satiate the calls for justice.

Help for Obama's coming jobs plan

We all know that beyond rhetorically, the president has had a really hard time pivoting to a jobs focus.  He's supposedly pivoted to jobs a few times now, but there's been no evidence that he's actually done anything beyond his original free-for-all stimulus known as ARRA (or porkulus).  There's also little evidence that what he's done has accomplished anything - except for more debt that is.  So with him ready to deliver a new jobs plan with all the appearance of him having gone away to work on a high school project in time for a due date (including the typical high school minimal and haphazard effort), he's not likely to come up with anything new, or good.