The Republican conservative tsunami - what went wrong?

Alright, this was a good night for Republicans and conservatives in general.  There's no need for Monday Morning Wednesday afternoon quarterbacking. But some things did not break as they had been expected to break.  Prior to the election I predicted for the GOP a gain of 61seats in Congress, a total of 34 governors (a gain of 9) and a gain of 9 seats in the Senate.  According to the latest USA Today numbers, it looks like this; The GOP picked up 60 seats in Congress (with 11 seats pending), 5 Senate seats with two still not projected  and 4 governorships (for a total of 29) with 4 seats pending (although no matter how it turns out at least Alaska will end up as some form of Republican).

Why Lieberman will stay put with Democrats.

The Hill is reporting that John Cornyn is inviting Joe Lieberman to caucus with the GOP. That's a tactic the Democrats used with Arlen Specter and it did him not a lick of good. But that aside, there is a bigger reason that Lieberman would continue to hang with the Democrats; the Tea Party.

On the surface it might make some political sense for Lieberman to switch sides. He would keep any seniority in committees and in a blue state, he has enough of a track record to maintain his liberal bona fides and win again. But that's where the story ends. Lieberman doesn't need to switch parties in the next election cycle to hope to survive a GOP Wave II in 2012. He's still a liberal leaning Senator in a liberal leaning state.

But even more important than the Specter example, the mostly leftward bent of his home state, is the state of the GOP. The Tea Party narrative will dominate the GOP agenda the next two years and perhaps beyond. That's too right leaning for Lieberman and it also leaves him out of any real power in his would-be new caucus. He'd be left standing on the sidelines or stepping into a major power struggle within the GOP. Why would he accept that? What would be his incentive? Would he accept a role as a new RINO in a grass roots conservative driven team? It makes no sense.

And why would Cornyn be saying any of this before the polls close? Is that not an admission that the GOP is going to come up short in the Senate? Could that not suppress the conservative turnout in today's close Senate races? Bad tactical move Senator. Bad tactical move.

On a personal level, does that not set up Cornyn as a possible Republican foil to the likes of Jim DeMint and the Tea Party? It looks like he's trying to counterbalance conservatives with another moderate/liberal. It looks like he buys the media hype about a Republican Civil War. Is that where he or anyone in the GOP elite need to be right now - being seen as fighting those who gave them another chance?

Try it tomorrow if you have 1 Senator short of a majority. Then you look like a hero if you pull it off and or as a cagey tactician for trying if you don't. Try it now and it looks desperate for whatever reason. That in itself is one more reason Lieberman is likely to turn up his nose to the offer and stay put.

This is only gonna work if you VOTE.

This is useless without casting a ballot when it counts - vote today.  This is your only real shot at putting the brakes on this administration for the next two years. EVERY single VOTE makes the Tea Party statement that much louder.

Your vote against runaway spending, your vote against increased taxation in a time of economic weakness, your vote against government takeovers, and Obamacare and unintended consequences and socialism and 'cap and trade' is meaningful.  It is necessary.  It doesn't matter if your candidate is tied, down 20 point or up 20 points in the polls.  It matters right now that you make a statement. Your vote is your voice - use it. 

Helping Out Patrick Meehan in PA-7

Republican Patrick Meehan is running for Congress in PA-7. He needs your vote and any other help you can provide. If you can volunteer to help, it still might not be too late.

Please spread the word to anyone you know in Pennsylvania!  He's worth your vote. Here's his closing argument.

Here he is proving that he is non-partisan when it comes to stopping corruption.

Quick Election Prediction Time

It looks like it's about time to go on record with predictions about the election tomorrow.  Given the volume of campaign information, it's impossible to go through and analyze each race individually, unless your Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook or Jim Geraghty.  Unfortunately,  I'm a data mining guy and would love to do those deep analyses, full time if I could.  But I digress.

Here are my prognostications for the GOP pickups this cycle.  THE GOP is going to be picking up 9 seats in the Senate, with a faint chance still, of making up 10 and getting control of the Senate.  As much as I want to say 10, Manchin's numbers have climbed over the latter part of the race in West Virginia, and there's no counter-burst of  advertising from Raese.  At least nothing that seems to have made an impact.  Hopefully there's a Raese blitz going on today.  To me that's the race to watch.  If it swings for Raese, it's possible that Washington and perhaps even California are still winnable.

GOP Winners from the on-the-bubble Senate races - Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Mark Kirk in Colorado (if he doesn't get Frankened afterwards), Ken Buck in Colorado, Sharron Angle in Nevada, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Dino Rossi in Washington. That still leaves Raese as the swing.  There are also some really dark horse challenges from Fiorina in California and McMahon in Connecticut, but that requires more wave than likely exists.  Still, I'm hopeful.

In the House I'm predicting a gain of 61 seats.  My inclination is to go higher but I don't want to get caught up in any false optimism.  People like Cook and Sabato are predicting in the mid-50's.  That's a pretty big wave. Jim Geraghty is suggesting a net gain of 70 seats, and he names names. I hope he's right.  But I am trying to stay cautious in light of the lower numbers out there.

For governorships RealClearPolitics is predicting a GOP pickup of 6. Rasmussen's polling is here. I'm leaning towards 9 again.  This is an important cycle for those races and a big pick-up will be a big boost for the GOP.

Remember to vote tomorrow.  Every vote counts - or at least it should.

Helping Out Tim Burns in PA-12

Tim Burns is running for Congress in the congressional district of PA-12. The only poll I could see in October has his opponent ahead by 7, but the sample size seemed a bit small. Tim Burns needs your vote.

In his own words, here's why he's a better choice than Mark Critz.

Don't forget, Mark Critz likes Obamacare.