Saturday Learning Series - Economics and Moral Hazard

What is moral hazard? It sounds like some esoteric concept that has no bearing in real life, but it played a big part in the economic collapse in 2008 and plays a big part in a lot of Democratic economic policy ideas.  That is to say, big government solutions are often full of moral hazard. 

Friday Musical Interlude - The Vapors

Turning Japanese by The Vapors, for today's Friday Musical Interlude.

Seriously, we need more Beck rallies.

I'm not kidding, more Beck rallies.  If we could get one a week until the election, that would be perfect.  Those rallies should go on tour.  Why?  Because if MSNBC and CBS want to argue about the attendance of those rallies, it keeps them from focusing their attention on getting the Democrats' message out.  Let them say that Glenn Beck only drew 87,00. Better that, even though it's insulting and wrong, than them trying to get out Democrat talking points.  Talking about Beck doesn't help the Democrat chances in November.

Midterms and Murphy's Law

Frown

Everyone is familiar with Murphy's Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. With the GOP riding high in Gallup, and 60 days to the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans shouldn't get too optimistic just yet. There's a lot that can go wrong, and a lot of it is very possible.

CBS uses odd source for estimates of Beck Rally attendance

What kind of attendance numbers have you heard about with regards to Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor Rally? 1 million? 500,000? 300,000? 100,000? In an insulting race to the bottom CBS is claiming there were 87,000 in attendance.  Proof positive that you shouldn't believe the messenger. Or sometimes any messenger.

87,000 people. I'm sure if they could have somehow claimed 6 people attended they would have done so.  The CBS number is insulting and inaccurate.  Flash back to the 9-12 rally last year.  The numbers were misrepresented back then too.

Interestingly, CBS uses estimates by AirPhotosLive.com as it's source for the crowd size estimate.  I went through their website trying to find someplace, any place, where they tout might their expertise in crowd size estimation. Not a thing.  While the company may have given an estimate to CBS, they surely must have qualified it as not being their area of expertise.  

They've got some great reviews and clearly have an experienced team, well suited to disaster scene surveillance, overviews of oil spills, forest fires, crash sites, crowds or disaster sites (day or night), 3D visualizations of proposed buildings, stealth surveillance, as well as time lapse views of ports, dams reservoirs, nuclear power plants and public events.  But that doesn't necessarily give them expertise in estimation of crowd sizes. Nor do they mention it.   

This isn't really about Air Photos live. I'm not saying they may not have some expertise in the area of crowd sizing.  But their credentials would certainly have to come under scrutiny when it comes to putting out stories about attendance at a sizable rally where the numbers could be in dispute. Surely CBS would have asked some questions about the number, and why it was so different from other estimates.  Surely CBS isn't known to put unsubstantiated information into the media as news, are they?

Nonsensible Shoes has emailed a couple of the listed contacts with Air Photos Live to ask about what photographs they might have of the Beck event and how they arrived at their crowd size estimate.  No reply has yet been received.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: No reply to my inquiries on crowd counts from the firm supposedly responsible for the number CBS used. Okay, that's not important or the least bit surprising.  But I thought you might like to know.  Apparently there's an Alinsky tactic we've never heard about - when you're caught with your pants down, HIDE.

2ND UPDATE (Sep. 5):  I did finally receive confirmation that Air Photos Live did take aerial photographs of the rally.  No comment on the number of attendees estimate.  It appears that they did indeed provide CBS with photographs of the rally, but so far that's it.

Game Changer: Democrats to Fear Monger on Social Security

Here's a note to Republicans - get out in front of this before it gets any traction. Momentum is on your side for the time being but this panic play by Democrats is going after the biggest potential demographic that could sway the tide. That is, everybody paying into or collecting Social Security.  Democrats are going to fear monger on social security as a desperate ploy to mitigate the tide in the upcoming midterm elections.