January 22, 2024

Nikki Haley's absurd rationale to stay in the race.

Tomorrow is the 2024 New Hampshire primary. Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the race, and Nikki Haley is getting the two person race she wanted. I'm not sure why she wants it though. When Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out he endorsed president Trump.  Now that Ron DeSantis has dropped out, he has done the same, and it appears, his supporters are buying into that idea. In South Carolina as governor, she appointed Tim Scott to the senate to fill a vacant seat. When Tim Scott left the race, he too endorsed president Trump.

And even without the effects of the latest endorsement by DeSantis, Trump already had a huge lead over Nikki Haley in the state that is supposed to make her candidacy viable.  Via RCP:

In fact, in the Trump vs. Haley head-to-head polls, Trump overperforms his average from the other polls with DeSantis still in the race.  Despite all of the Democrat backing, despite the establishment backing, Haley is going to lose. Trump has the momentum.  What happens if Haley has a semi-decent showing in New Hampshire, a respectable second place? The next primary is Nevada.  Trump is ahead by 60 points - over DeSantis.  Haley doesn't even rate in the polling there. There is no blip on the radar at all for her. Then what? South Carolina, where Trump has a 30+ point lead over Haley.  Where is her path?

Following that, in Michigan, the Trump lead over (again DeSantis) is almost 50 points. Haley at least rates third. 

Her chances of winning, are nil. Zero. Her inconsistency is astounding.  Her support in New Hampshire is pure astroturf. Her only chance to win is by gaming the system in the state. She cannot win the nomination, even if she comes close in New Hampshire. The net effect of her staying in the race only helps Democrats.  

Or maybe not. Because on-going primaries help keep Trump's name in the media, so it's not all bad. In fact, it might actually benefit Trump - much to the chagrin of both establishment Republicans and Democrats in toto.

Her rationale to stay in the race, on the surface, is absurd. Unless, she is simply an establishment and/or Democratic stooge, intent on damaging Trump. Republican voters will not support her positions, many of which align with Democrat positions. I don't think she'll drop out any time soon, and that will simply prove that her motivation is not to beat Trump but to hurt him.  If she does drop out, I will be surprised. But I will be even more surprised if after doing so, she endorses the frontrunner. It's not why she's in this race.

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