October 5, 2020

The latest look of the polls

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 218 electoral college votes.  Joe Biden currently has 199 electoral college votes and there are 121 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*
In the swing states the following results are observed:
-- Texas has a total of just 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Trump win. 
-- Florida has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Pennsylvania has a total of 2 valid polls. Trump has 50.2% and Biden has 49.8% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.5%.  Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Ohio has a total of 4 valid polls. Trump has 53.6% and Biden has 46.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 7.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Georgia has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 50.1% and Biden has 49.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.1%. Trump would get the electoral college votes.
-- Michigan has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 52.7% and Biden has 47.3% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 5.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- North Carolina has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.6% and Biden has 49.4% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 1.2%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Virginia has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 49.4% and Biden has 50.6% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 1.2%.  No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.  I am assuming a Biden win.
-- Arizona has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Wisconsin has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 50.5% and Biden has 49.5% of the weighted valid vote total. Trump leads by 0.9%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Minnesota has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 48.8% and Biden has 51.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 2.4%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Colorado has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Nevada has a total of 1 valid poll.  That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. Trump has 43.8% and Biden has 56.2% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 12.3%. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- Iowa has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Mexico has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls.
-- New Hampshire has a total of 3 valid polls. Trump has 48.1% and Biden has 51.9% of the weighted valid vote total. Biden leads by 3.7%. Biden would get the electoral college votes.
-- Maine has a total of 0 valid polls. That is not sufficient to make a prediction in the state. The state remains a toss up. No one currently is winning the electoral college vote according to included polls. 

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 14 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.1%, among pollsters rated C- or better, using the Pollster Tracking by FiveThirtyEight.com, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias and my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

Given the above adjusted poll review, president Trump would need to win Florida (which he leads), Iowa (a reasonable assumption), Maine's 2nd district (a reasonable assumption), and 16 other electoral college votes to reach 270. Michigan alone could do that.  North Carolina could also almost do it, or Wisconsin plus Arizona could do it. Of those last three, it appears that Trump leads the first two.

Things do not look bad for the president at all.  His contraction of COVID-19 could have an interesting impact on the polling once polls come in post diagnosis.


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