October 12, 2020

Electoral college and election night projection update

I've added a vote total component to my projection analysis and I've seen some interesting things to be a bit worried about. Remember, this is just a poll-driven analysis.  I'm only trying to account for poll errors and poll validity. With the addition of vote totals, I am looking at allocating the weighted average polling results for what I consider valid polls, on a  state by state basis.  It does not take into consideration registration changes, only Pew Research's state by state Republican/Democrat/Independent voter registration percentages (I have not paid for actual registration data because I am not rich).  These results are poll-viewed results, where I am unable to make a call in a state is it because there has not been enough valid polling being done in that state so far.  I expect a lot more polling to be done in the next three weeks and the valid data should be much more plentiful.

First the electoral college totals - I've refined my analysis to include only polls from the last 14 days, with 500 or more likely voters for sample sizes and a margin of error of 4% or less.  Including only those qualifying state polls, I have president Trump at 244 electoral college votes, Biden at 237 with 57  votes from states that are undetermined as of this moment - those being Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Texas I am assuming for Trump despite the lack of pollster information because even though there are many unknown pollsters, they are pretty much all clearly tipped towards the president.

Interestingly, after accounting for likely polling bias, I am seeing Michigan and Florida going for Trump but North Carolina going for Biden.  

There are also some interesting vote differential projections in both the regular and high turnout models. I am seeing a mere 10,000 vote win for president Trump in Florida. That's CLOSE. It's also something Democrats could paper over with mail in ballot malfeasance.

Pennsylvania I am seeing in Biden's column by 55,000 votes.  Georgia is in the president's column but by a mere 24,000 votes. Michigan he wins by only 11,000. Biden wins North Carolina by only 15,000 votes.  Despite only one valid poll, it would appear Trump will win the state by 80,000 votes.

The president's lead in Wisconsin would be smaller than 2016, winning the state by just 25,000 votes. According to the polls Biden would win New Hampshire by 16,000 votes but it's also possible that the vote differential could be less than 1000 votes.

The next three weeks are going to be very interesting.

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