August 5, 2020

RealClearPolitics average of polls is useless

Here's how you know that the RealClearPolitics average of polls is well, useless (or garbage, if you prefer).  If all their averages are correct, this would be the result:

Click the map to create your own at

But by using their polls, and filtering as I have in the past, for Likely Voter polls, acceptable margin of error polls, trusted pollsters (according to FiveThirtyEight's ranking of pollsters), sample size and recency - as well as now adjusting for the pollster biases as per FiveThirtyEight, here's what it looks like to me:

Click the map to create your own at

The average of polls are garbage, probably because most of the polls themselves are flawed in one way or another.  I would spend some time drilling down on it, but it is pointless at the moment - in a month or so, the polls will tighten.  If Biden is very close in Texas and Georgia and +6 in Pennsylvania and as high as +15 in some polls in battleground states, then I'm an artichoke. 

Remember, these pollsters had Hillary Clinton winning a similar landslide in 2016.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Disagreement is always welcome. Please remain civil. Vulgar or disrespectful comments towards anyone will be removed.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share This