March 1, 2020

The Biden "bounce"

The only way Joe Biden gets any momentum from his primary win in South Carolina is if he manages a strong enough showing on Super Tuesday and a few other candidates drop out after the electoral delegate deluge.  That won't be Bloomberg, but if Buttigeig and Klobuchar drop out there's a good possibility Biden picks up the lion's share of their delegates.

That's a big if:  Bloomberg could do well and gain the momentum instead.  He's trying to buy the nomination and it will be interesting to see if he can. 

And there's another big if: should Warren drop from the race, her support would most like coalesce around Sanders.  So Biden's momentum in the longer term requires Warren to remain in the race as long as possible.

There are a lot of IFs with respect to Joe Biden winning the nomination and even if he manages to pull it off, he is so flawed and now so politically wounded that he's basically an unwinnable candidate for president.

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