March 4, 2020

So it's Biden now. Now what?

This guy? Really?
Joe Biden apparently is the guy.  I had expected after Super Tuesday that the race would tighten and Biden would be close to Sanders.  After California finishes counting that should be the case - except it is Biden who will have a small lead on Sanders rather than the other way around.

But Joe Biden people?  Democrats, this guy is your champion???  Alright.  I think he is truly beatable. Yes, more electable than Sanders but I don't think he's electable.

The real concern here is that after two weeks of Democrat establishment freaking out over Sanders potentially winning this thing and warning voters not to nominate a socialist because of the down-ballot impacts, it looks like Democrat voters continue to be the sheep we conservatives believe Democrats are.  Bernie Sanders is a potential train-wreck for the country but at least Democrat voters were not beholden to the Establishment status quo.  It looks like they did not learn anything from Republican voters about trying to reshape the structure of their party.  They seem to be content to remain the party of managed American decline.

So now what?

Bloomberg may now finally see the writing on the wall and bow out.  If he does, the nomination probably becomes a lock for Biden.  If he continues on then it seems a brokered convention still remains possible, in which case Bloomberg might manage to have enough delegates to demand a VP slot.  Although Biden would be smarter to save that position for Sanders or Warren in order to heal the divides within the party. That said, Sanders supporters might not vote for the candidate that Sanders ends up supporting just because Sanders says so.  They didn't buy into his backing of Clinton in 2016.  Even Sanders on the ticket may not be enough to swing their votes.  Then again, I would not expect Biden to pick Sanders for his VP.  Clearly the Democrat Establishment freaking out over Sanders would not support the choice of Sanders being a step away from running the country.

Elizabeth Warren has proven she's just an also ran, but I would not preclude her from staying in the race just to attempt to be in a position to get the VP slot.  That serves the Democrat Establishment and it servers her.  It would certainly slow Sanders support but not by much to be honest.

There's something else to consider.  Sanders is not out of it.  Despite the Biden upset win in Texas, he won in a group of states that were mostly his to lose.  And there are a lot of states coming up where Sanders clearly has an advantage.  Sanders will need a string of wins in the next set of races in order to not fade away.  Should he do so we may be back to a brokered convention situation.  Should he fail to win convincingly, he's going to have to drop out.  March 10th, just a week away are primaries in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington as well as a caucus in North Dakota.  

Sanders should do well in 3 of the 5 primaries, while Biden looks well positioned in the southern states of Mississippi and Missouri.  The North Dakota caucus could go either way but Sanders needs a big win on the 10th or he will have truly lost all momentum to Biden.

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