June 1, 2017

Trump presidency has turned the corner on jobs

Looking at this CNBC graphic, it isn't immediately obvious the positive impact president Trump's election has had on job creation in America.

Assuming we allow November private sector jobs added to fall under the president Obama tally, from May 2016 through November 2016 his economy added an average of 170,000 jobs per month over 7 months. Since president Trump's election job creation has increased dramatically on speculation that his business-friendly agenda would mean better profits for business and more jobs for America.  Hiring started in November, but let's leave that one in Obama's column and start president Trump's tally in December.  

Over 6 months president Trump's economy has added an average of 233,333 private payroll jobs per month over 6 months.  That doesn't sound like a dramatic increase over his predecessor but it represents a 37.25% increase in jobs added over the previous Obama span.

Anyone trying to argue that those are really jobs added by the Obama economy doesn't understand the speculative nature of the free market.  Businesses are wise to act based on coming events not historical events.  To react as slowly as the latter means to be at a competitive disadvantage and that means economic death.  The stock market alone is proof that reaction speeds are quick.

Further to that point, if the Obama economy was so rosy, why did it suddenly leap ahead after Trump became president elect?  Why not any time in the 8 years prior to that?  Yes the unemployment rate dropped from over 10% to under 5% under president Obama.  But that fact excludes the dismal labor participation rate's historic lows under president Obama.  Less people were trying to get jobs because they had given up on looking for work.

President Trump is bringing those people back into the labor market at the same time as improving job creation.  Thatès even before his tax plans are enacted.President Trumpès economy will boom if it is enacted.  To that end, Republicans must act both on his Obamacare replacement and his tax plan or they will miss a golden opportunity to rout Democrats in 2018 and again in 2020.

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