July 6, 2016

The Tea Leaves on a GOP convention revolt

Many people, including some I know are arguing that the GOP delegates at the Republican National Convention should vote their conscience and not vote for Donald Trump.  Many of these same people were the ones asking the Republican National Committee to re-write the rules on the nomination process to allow delegates to not vote for Trump.

Set aside the hypocrisy that many of these people were deriding the Democrats for their super delegates being an undemocratic aberration from true democracy.  I wonder if they realize that without the super delegate allocation Hillary Clinton still does not have enough votes to win the Democratic nomination.  

Set aside the fact that in a crowded field of obstinate non-Trump contenders who remained in the race and split the anyone-but-Trump vote, Trump did win the nomination among the primary electorate. It's not the first time the front runner did not exceed a plurality.  This is how the system works. Moving the goalposts  95% of the way into the race is also something conservatives have for decades railed against the Democratic party for doing regularly.  Again, hypocrisy.

We are giving up talking points on the other party being anti-democratic.  We are giving up the moral high ground versus Democrats by debasing ourselves using similar dirty tricks.

Reading the tea leaves post a revolt at the convention is easy. The only real question is whether consequences would be unintended or  purposeful.  

Just as a successful revolt would be heralded as healthy democracy in action by the #NeverTrump crowd, it will be lambasted by the left, the Democrats and the media as grossly un-Democratic and clearly the GOP is a party run by elites who pitched a fit when their candidate(s) of choice did not win.  It's hard to claim they're wrong, and it will not help the GOP in the presidential race one iota, nor will it help anyone down-ticket.  Did an open floor rebellion help the Democrats in 1968? No. It's a recipe for chaos and failure. And maybe party insiders know that already.

And should the effort fail, it will still be secretly heralded as a success by party insiders who might justifiably feel that they have ensured a Trump defeat. It would be trumpeted by Democrats as follows:  'Republicans do not know what they want so why can we trust them to govern with any sort of vision'?

The whole notion is a massive shoot-yourself-in-the-foot effort that makes me question the motives many (not all) of those opposed to Trump.



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