June 9, 2016

Why Trump will win (or lose), pure and simple

On the same day that Obama endorses Hillary Clinton for president (no real surprise), the FBI confirms that it is conducting a criminal investigation of her. Obama has become the status quo.  Endorsing Hillary is more of the same status quo.  And the status quo is apparently criminal.  This at a time that people are fed up with the status quo.

Is it any wonder Trump is surging even while he's crude, abrasive and often is a hard listen?  Even Latinos are not so radically opposed to him.

It's seeming more and more like Trump is going to win and the reason is clear: people are willing to put aside their distaste for him because the country is in dire straits. Clinton is more of the same failed approach and Trump is promising to fix things.  Clinton fundamentally believes things are on track.  Maybe for her and her million dollar speeches they are, but voters don't see it that way.

Voters see trouble.  they feel it personally in millions of cases.  Bernie Sanders gets that and is the socialist man in the right place at the right time.  The GOP, for all their supposed understanding that the country is sick, did not field a candidate capable of embracing the unrest and unease - except for Trump.  Those voters have no place to go in a head-to-head Hillary-Trump match except for Trump.

Trump could win a lot more electoral votes than the 270 necessary to win.  Unless..

There's a third party spoiler (think Johnson or Romney) or maybe if Hillary in a transparent bid to get his supporters on board selects Sanders as her running mate.  Either or both of those scenarios could derail Trump.  Trump could derail Trump, but evidence so far suggests he won't.  Then again, he's trying to attract more moderate supporters and a new tone might help there. I doubt it. His track record of bombast has generated his success, so he's not likely to change.  And indeed softening his image might look like capitulation to the status quo. That likely will hurt as much as it will help.

Trump is likely to continue and will attract incrementally smaller increases in support.  But barring the impact of either scenario mentioned above, it's likely to prove enough for him to win.  So all things being equal, assuming he does, let's hope he can actually deliver on some of the important things he's promised that will help make America great again.

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