August 31, 2010

Raining on the Republicans' Parade

I hate to do it.  I would love as much as the next Reagan conservative to see the Republicans pick up 70 seats in Congress and 15 seats in the Senate.  And there are reasons to be optimistic about a takeover of Congress and hopeful about the same in the Senate.  For example, Gallup's latest poll has Republicans up 10 points on the generic Congressional ballot among registered voters. It's never been that high. So what could possibly be wrong?

A few weeks ago, the Gallup numbers had a surge for Democrats and they were up by as much as 6.  The Rasmussen numbers meanwhile among likely voters, have the GOP up only by 6. I have always preferred Rasmussen because of the likely voter mix, and I'm even more impressed now because of the  lack of radical fluctuation.  The smoother numbers indicate their survey methods are less susceptible to fluctuation and outlier results.

Gallup meanwhile has just set the bar impossibly high for the GOP.  Anything less than 60 seats is now going to be sen as a Democratic victory.  Or at least that's how the mainstream media will try to portray the 40 seat win.  They have their ammunition from Gallup now.

Last year people were talking about 20 seats for the Republicans.  Then it was 40.  Now 60?  I'd love to see it, but I want to be realistic.  Maybe it will be 60.  But I wouldn't start putting that out there just yet. In fact, it's too early for any number yet, other than 63 days to the election.  That's a number I can get behind.

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